Women have a good chance of having a second child with the help of fertility treatment after the birth of their first child born this way, according to the first study to investigate this, published today in Human Reproduction, one of the world’s leading reproductive medicine journals.

Researchers in Australia calculated that after a woman successfully achieved a live birth using in vitro fertilisation (IVF), also known as assisted reproductive technology (ART), the chances of a second ART baby were between 51% and 88% after six cycles of treatment.

These calculations depended on whether or not previously frozen embryos were used or fresh embryos from a new ovarian stimulation cycle, and on assumptions made about the likely success rate for women who discontinued treatment.

The chances of a second ART baby decreased with increased maternal age.

Compared to women younger than 30 years, the likelihood of women aged 35-39 having a second ART-conceived baby reduced by 22% if they recommenced treatment with a frozen embryo from a previous cycle and by 50% if they recommenced treatment with a new cycle and a fresh embryo.

Factors that improved their chances of a successful second pregnancy included requiring only one cycle and a single embryo transfer to achieve a first live birth, and where infertility was caused by factors affecting the male partner.

Professor Georgina Chambers, director of the National Perinatal Epidemiology and Statistics Unit at the University of New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), looked at data from 35,290 women who received ART treatment between 2009 and 2013 in Australia and New Zealand and had a live baby during this time. These women were followed for a further two years to 2015, providing between two and seven years of follow-up data, and live births up to October 2016 were included.

We calculated two measures: what is a woman’s chance of achieving a second live birth in a particular cycle of treatment if previous cycles have failed, for instance in cycle three if the first two cycles have failed; and what is the overall, or cumulative, chance of a woman achieving a live birth after a particular number of cycles, including all the previous cycles. For example, what is the overall chance of a woman having a baby after up to three cycles,” said Prof Chambers.

A cycle includes the stimulation of the ovaries to mature multiple eggs, the collection of eggs for fertilisation in the laboratory to create embryos, and then all embryo transfer procedures that use the embryos from the egg retrieval procedure. This can include fresh embryo transfers and frozen embryo transfers.

Prof Chambers and her colleagues calculated estimates of cumulative live birth rates (CLBR) for women who were trying for a second ART baby that took account not only of the women who continued treatment, but also those who discontinued treatment.

The conservative CLBR assumed that women who dropped out would have no chance of achieving a second live birth if they had continued treatment. The optimal CLBR assumed these women would have the same chance of a live birth in a particular cycle as women who had continued treatment. The range between the conservative and optimal estimates gives a realistic idea of success rates.

Just over 43% (15,325) of the 35,290 women, with an average (median) age of 36, returned for treatment to conceive a second child by December 2015.

Among these women, 73% used a frozen embryo from the egg retrieval cycle that had resulted in their first child, and for them the CLBR ranged from 61% (conservative estimate) to 88% (optimal estimate) after six cycles. Among the women who had a new stimulation cycle and used a fresh embryo, the CLBR ranged from 51% to 70%.

Overall, 43% of women who recommence treatment with one of the frozen embryos from a previous stimulation cycle will have a baby after their first embryo transfer procedure. Between 61% and 88% of these women will have a baby after six cycles,” said Prof Chambers. “Among those who recommence treatment with a new stimulation cycle and a fresh embryo transfer, 31% will have a baby after their first cycle and between 51% and 70% after six cycles.”

Although success rates declined with female age, the researchers found that after three cycles of treatment, the conservative and optimal CLBRs in women aged 40 to 44 years were 38% and 55% respectively in those that started with a frozen embryo, and 20% and 25% in those recommencing with a new stimulated cycle and fresh embryos.

Read more: https://academic.oup.com/humrep/advance-article/doi/10.1093/humrep/deaa030/5817569